Report says climate change could cause far more heat deaths in poorer countries

Heat deaths projected to rise sharply in poorer countries

Climate change is projected to increase premature deaths caused by heatwaves, with more than 90 per cent of those deaths expected to occur in low- and middle-income countries, according to a new report from the Climate Impact Lab.

The report says temperature-related mortality will depend not only on the direct effects of a warming climate, but also on the investments that governments and communities make to protect public health. It points to measures such as air conditioning, cooling centres and other forms of adaptation as ways to reduce the toll.

Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and director of the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Growth and Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago, said the findings show a stark inequality at the heart of climate change. He said millions are projected to die in countries that have generally contributed the least to the problem, while also being less able to respond because of lower income levels.

Inequality in climate impacts

The report is based on the Climate Impact Lab’s projections of temperature-related mortality using highly localised data from around the world. It says the greatest impacts are expected not just in warmer regions, but in places that are both hot and poor, where resources for adaptation are more limited.

As an example, Burkina Faso in West Africa is projected to experience twice as many heat deaths as the wealthier country of Kuwait, despite their similar climates. Overall, the report projects that by 2050, ten times more people will die from heat in poor countries than in rich ones.

A similar pattern appears at the city level. More than 15 times more people are projected to die from heat in Faisalabad, Pakistan, than in Phoenix, Arizona, a city that is also hot but far wealthier. The report adds that in many Pakistani cities, the number of people projected to die from heat in 2050 will exceed the number currently dying from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and stroke.

Adaptation investments seen as critical

Tamma Carleton, faculty head of research for the Climate Impact Lab and an assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said the report identifies where targeted adaptation investments could save the most lives. She said the regions facing the highest increases in mortality often also have limited resources, weak government capacity and a poor history of attracting international private investment.

The report is the first in a new “Adaptation Roadmap” series. It argues that adaptation should be treated as a central part of the response to climate change, alongside efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.